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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low 
pressure over the Bay of Campeche is becoming better defined.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely 
to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly 
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Heavy rainfall 
is also expected over portions of southern Mexico during the next 
couple of days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en 
route to investigate the system, and interests in southwestern 
Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Bucci/Blake