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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
 
Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous 
advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains 
is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed 
that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due 
to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite 
presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have 
started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt 
for this advisory.
 
Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8 
kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a 
turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow. 
The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the 
consensus aids. 

The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a 
drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to 
produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later 
tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and 
the system dissipating in a couple of days.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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